【公募基金】股市短期震荡，从叙事走向验证——基金配置策略报告（2026年2月期）

Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market showed a good profit effect with major indices rising, while the bond market stabilized. The cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with non-ferrous metals, media, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains at 23.02%, 18.85%, and 14.95% respectively. Conversely, the banking, comprehensive finance, and transportation sectors experienced declines of -6.18%, -4.46%, and -0.89% respectively [3] - The bond market exhibited resilience after a period of decline, with major bond fund indices showing slight increases: the Wind medium to long-term pure bond fund index rose by 0.24%, the Wind bond index fund index by 0.20%, and the Wind short-term pure bond fund index by 0.16%. Additionally, the first-level bond fund, second-level bond fund, and convertible bond fund indices increased by 0.85%, 1.65%, and 6.90% respectively [3] Equity Fund Allocation Strategy - The A-share market in February faces a complex environment influenced by both internal and external factors. Externally, the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts and rising "Wall Street expectations" have led to a rebound in the US dollar. Internally, the combination of "RMB appreciation + gradual inflow of long-term funds from residents + regulatory guidance for stable market operation" is observed. The market may enter a short-term adjustment phase before the Spring Festival due to tightening liquidity and holiday effects, with limited systemic opportunities and a focus on structural trends [4] - Future price increases driven by a reversal in supply-demand dynamics are expected to release stronger profit elasticity and further valuation recovery. The technology sector, particularly in areas with clear patterns and certain benefits such as "light, electricity, and storage," is likely to continue to outperform. Traditional dividend stocks are also becoming more attractive in terms of cost-effectiveness, serving as a stabilizing tool for investment portfolios [4] Fixed Income Fund Allocation Strategy - Looking ahead to February, the pessimism in the bond market has eased, but caution is still advised regarding extending duration. Holding high coupon bonds is seen as more cost-effective. Despite current ample liquidity and the emphasis on long-term interest rates in the fourth quarter monetary policy report, the recent 10-year yield has fallen below 1.8%, and the credit spreads for medium to long-term credit bonds are currently narrow, limiting further contraction [5] - Overall, the difficulty in obtaining short-term capital gains may increase, making coupon strategies a more favorable choice. Specific fund products are recommended to focus on high coupon bonds while actively managing positions in response to market conditions [6]