全国房价止跌信号初现

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with increased transaction volumes and a narrowing of price declines, indicating a potential "small spring" in the market [5][10][28]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of January 2026, the year-on-year decline in the transaction area of second-hand houses in 22 cities has narrowed from 26.8% to 13.0% [6]. - The transaction area of second-hand houses has shown a month-on-month increase, reaching 279.0 million square meters, the highest level since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [7]. - In January 2026, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 26 key cities increased by 27.0% year-on-year and 18.5% month-on-month [7]. Group 2: Price Movements - The nationwide average listing price for second-hand residential properties in January 2026 decreased by 0.85% month-on-month, a reduction in the decline compared to previous months [13]. - The listing price decline for first, second, and third-tier cities has also narrowed, indicating a stabilization in pricing trends [10][13]. - The average transaction price for second-hand houses in major cities is approaching levels seen in 2016 and earlier, suggesting a return to more reasonable price-to-income ratios [27]. Group 3: Regional Performance - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have reported significant increases in transaction volumes, with Beijing's net signed transactions exceeding 15,000 units in January 2026 [15][16]. - The real-time transaction volume in 26 key cities increased by 14% month-on-month, with Xiamen showing the highest increase at 34% [17]. - The performance of the second-hand housing market is particularly strong in school districts, driven by demand from parents seeking to purchase homes before the school year [24]. Group 4: Policy Developments - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for use as affordable rental housing, marking a significant policy shift in the city's approach to housing supply [36][37]. - The "old for new" policy aims to facilitate smoother transitions for homeowners looking to upgrade, potentially increasing market activity and improving liquidity [38][39]. - The effectiveness of the "old for new" policy will depend on aligning purchase prices with buyer expectations and ensuring sufficient funding and suitable housing stock are available [41][44].