中泰资管天团 | 张亨嘉：2026年思考与应对——守圈笃行，静待花开

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing volatility in the capital markets and the significant differentiation in valuations and industry prosperity, emphasizing the need for a cautious and informed investment approach in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Expanding the Circle of Competence - The concept of the circle of competence is often misunderstood; it should be defined by both the investor's knowledge and the pricing dynamics of the market [1]. - Investors should focus on deepening industry research to enhance their understanding and expand their circle of competence while being cautious about future assumptions to find better pricing opportunities [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Patience - Patience is essential in investing, especially for those employing a left-side contrarian strategy, which requires a long-term holding mindset [5]. - The high-end liquor industry is highlighted as an example where leading companies are making strategic moves despite low overall industry sentiment, indicating the importance of recognizing long-term value creation [5]. Group 3: Focus on Efficient Capital Allocation - Long-term returns for companies are fundamentally linked to their capital allocation capabilities; firms should prioritize high-return investments over mechanical high dividend payouts [9]. - There is a noticeable divergence in capital allocation behaviors across industries, with some companies effectively managing their capital while others engage in inefficient spending [9]. - In 2026, the focus will shift towards companies that emphasize capital returns and possess strong capital allocation capabilities as a core selection criterion [10]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - The market has experienced a significant recovery, with core indices like the CSI 300 returning to historical valuation levels, indicating potential for both upward and downward movement [10]. - The strategy will involve a balanced and diversified approach to manage high volatility, ensuring that the investment portfolio remains robust against market fluctuations [10][11]. Group 5: Continuous Learning and Adaptation - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining an open and evolving knowledge base while cautiously expanding the boundaries of the circle of competence [11].