国泰海通｜宏观：哪些服务业：空间较大

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the service industry in China from three dimensions: development trends, demand potential, and productivity changes, identifying significant growth opportunities in sectors such as retail, catering, publishing, healthcare, internet services, leasing business services, railway transportation, and banking [1][7]. Service Industry Definition and Accounting - The service industry, defined as the tertiary sector, includes various sectors excluding primary and secondary industries, covering 15 categories from wholesale and retail to specialized auxiliary activities [2][7]. - Current statistical accounting for the service industry in China is less developed compared to the industrial sector, with issues such as data lag, missing data, and incomplete coverage of sub-sectors [7]. Analysis of Development Potential - The potential for service industry growth is significant, with China's GDP per capita nearing high-income thresholds, yet the value added and employment share in the service sector remain at the lower end compared to similar income countries [3][7]. - The report suggests that there is approximately a 7.7 percentage point potential increase in the service industry's value added share, projected to reach 56.7% by 2024, compared to the average of 64.5% in high-income countries [7]. Supply and Demand Perspective - The enhancement of service industry levels is driven by both supply-side productivity changes and demand-side consumption structure upgrades, with life services expanding due to dual effects of demand pull and cost push [7]. - The report highlights that while the share of productive services in China is narrowing the gap with developed economies, the life services sector remains relatively stable, indicating a need for effective labor mobility to transmit productivity gains across sectors [7]. Industry Chain Perspective - The report identifies two main lines for enhancing and upgrading the service industry: the integration of productive services with manufacturing to avoid de-industrialization and the strong consumer pull on life services such as retail, accommodation, and transportation [7]. - By 2025, the service industry in China is expected to show stable overall performance, with weak demand for life services and rising prices lacking sufficient internal support [7]. Sector-Specific Growth Opportunities - The analysis indicates that within the life services sector, areas such as retail, catering, publishing, and healthcare, as well as productive services like internet services, leasing business services, railway transportation, and banking, have substantial growth potential [1][7].