国泰海通｜煤炭：能源大周期下，美国煤炭或迎高光时刻——Global Energy Perspectives Series

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the U.S. coal industry is at a historic turning point, with a significant rebound expected in coal consumption due to the abandonment of decarbonization policies by the Trump administration and increasing reliance on base-load energy sources like coal and natural gas to address the growing electricity shortage driven by AI demand [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Coal Industry Outlook - The U.S. coal sector is projected to experience a substantial increase in demand, with an expected rise of 12.4% in coal consumption over the next decade, marking the first significant growth in ten years [2]. - The anticipated electricity shortage in the U.S. is expected to peak around 2027-2028, leading to an increase in coal usage by approximately 12-15 million tons compared to 2024 levels [2]. - The combination of supportive policies and economic viability is expected to drive a new upward cycle for coal power generation [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The U.S. coal industry faces limitations in domestic production capacity, necessitating a shift from exporting approximately 50 million tons of high-quality thermal coal to domestic sales, alongside an increase in imports estimated between 20-50 million tons [3]. - This shift could impact the global coal supply-demand balance, potentially affecting 3%-7% of the global market, reinforcing the outlook for a long-term energy cycle [3].