国泰海通｜固收：产业永续债分析框架和机会挖掘

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of industrial perpetual bonds primarily aims to reduce corporate leverage, with significant peaks in net financing observed during two previous issuance cycles [1] Group 1: Issuance Trends - From 2018 to 2020, the implementation of guidelines to strengthen the asset-liability constraints of state-owned enterprises led to a reduction in average asset-liability ratios by approximately 2 percentage points by the end of 2020 compared to the end of 2017, with annual net financing around 400 billion [1] - In 2023, high-leverage central state-owned enterprises still have a demand for debt reduction, with annual net financing between 200 billion to 300 billion, alongside an increase in the scale of perpetual bond repayments, indicating a continuous expansion in issuance scale, expected to reach a new high in 2025 [1] Group 2: Issuance Duration - The proportion of 5+N maturities has increased in the past two years, with the issuance duration evolving through three phases: 1. From 2018 to 2020, 3+N maturities dominated, accounting for over 70% for three consecutive years [2] 2. From 2021 to 2023, while 3+N remained predominant, the share of 2+N maturities significantly increased due to credit bond sentiment shifts [2] 3. Since 2024, under debt resolution expectations, the overall credit and duration spreads have narrowed, leading to longer issuance durations, with 5+N proportions at 31.5% and 20.3% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [2] Group 3: Terms and Conditions - The terms of industrial perpetual bonds reflect a balance between debt-like and equity-like characteristics, with over 60% of perpetual bonds containing subordinated clauses in recent years [3] - Stricter accounting standards have led to an increase in equity-like terms to meet planning requirements, with the 2019 regulations clarifying repayment order and interest rate escalation mechanisms [3] - Since 2023, subordinated perpetual bonds have consistently made up over 60% of all perpetual bonds, with debt-like terms designed to protect investor interests, as the yield on perpetual bonds is generally lower than that of dividend stocks [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The proportion of industrial perpetual bond spreads has reached a recent high, indicating stronger resilience against downturns, with historical spread proportions fluctuating between 10% and 60% [4] - Two recommended investment strategies for industrial perpetual bonds include: 1. Yield strategy, focusing on coal and steel industry entities with a remaining term of less than 2 years, prioritizing larger local state-owned enterprises while monitoring profitability and fundamental conditions to avoid tail risks [4] 2. Duration strategy, recommending central state-owned enterprises in public utilities and transportation sectors with around 5-year maturities, as these entities are in high-leverage industries with a need for debt reduction but possess good qualifications, suggesting a lower likelihood of becoming "true perpetuals" [4]