Shopify Q4 财报解读：股价大跌 40%，是机会还是风险？

Core Viewpoint - Shopify has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past three years, and the recent decline of nearly 40% from its peak may present a buying opportunity [2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Shopify reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $123.84 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31.1%, exceeding market expectations of $119.96 billion by $3.88 billion [7]. - Revenue for the quarter reached $3.67 billion, up 30.6% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $3.59 billion by $0.82 billion [8]. - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) was $205 million, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year growth, also exceeding expectations of $199.05 million by $0.0595 million [8]. - Operating income was $631 million, a 35.7% increase year-over-year [9]. - Free cash flow amounted to $715 million, up 17.0% year-over-year, although the profit margin declined [10]. Yearly Financial Overview - For the year ended December 31, 2025, key financial metrics included: - GMV: $378.44 billion, up from $292.28 billion in 2024 [11]. - Revenue: $11.56 billion, compared to $8.88 billion in 2024 [11]. - Gross profit: $5.56 billion, up from $4.47 billion in 2024 [11]. - Operating income: $1.47 billion, compared to $1.08 billion in 2024 [11]. - Free cash flow: $2.01 billion, up from $1.60 billion in 2024 [11]. - The year-over-year revenue growth rate was 30% for 2025, compared to 26% for 2024 [11]. Margin Trends - The gross margin decreased from 48% to 46%, and the free cash flow margin fell from 22% to 19% [12]. - The decline in gross margin has been a structural trend since 2016, with a compound annual growth rate decline of -1.2% [12]. - The company attributes this trend to the growth of merchant solutions, which typically have lower margins than subscription solutions [13]. Operating Expenses - Over the past two years, the proportion of sales and marketing, research and development, and general and administrative expenses relative to revenue has decreased, indicating strong operating leverage [14]. - Transaction and loan loss provisions have increased, primarily due to financing-related merchant solutions, but are expected to normalize without significant value erosion [14]. 2026 Performance Guidance - Shopify expects revenue growth in Q1 2026 to remain above 30%, similar to Q4 2025 levels [18]. - Gross profit growth is anticipated to be in the high 20% range [19]. - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue are projected to be between 37% and 38% [20]. - Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the range of 10% to 15%, slightly lower than Q1 2025 [21]. Valuation - Shopify's current valuation appears to be below the historical median, which is high at 31 times gross profit [22]. - Using a five-year discounted cash flow model, assuming a 25% annual growth rate for free cash flow, the implied value is approximately $77 billion, indicating the current stock price may be overvalued by nearly 100% [22]. - In a highly optimistic scenario with a 25% growth rate over ten years, the reasonable equity value could be around $155.6 billion, suggesting a slight undervaluation at the current market cap of $149 billion [22]. Conclusion - Analysts view Shopify as a high-quality company with a strong market position and recurring revenue model, justifying a valuation premium [27]. - Despite a 40% decline, market growth expectations remain high, and pressures on profit margins and economic downturn risks have not been fully priced into the stock, potentially creating a buying opportunity [27].