中金：另眼看消费

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the debate surrounding China's consumption rate, suggesting that it may not be as low as commonly perceived when compared to both international standards and domestic supply capabilities [2][4]. Group 1: International Comparison - Internationally, China's consumption rate is often viewed as low, even when compared to countries with similar manufacturing GDP ratios [2][4]. - Some studies argue that China's consumption rate is underestimated due to differences in statistical methods and price variations, such as housing consumption accounting and social transfer payments [2][4]. - Absolute price levels do not adequately explain the low consumption rate, as more developed economies typically have higher price levels [2][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Evaluating consumption rates should also consider domestic supply capabilities, as improvements in technology have enhanced China's supply capacity, supporting potential growth [4][5]. - Weak price trends indicate that actual growth is below potential growth, highlighting the need to boost consumption to align actual growth with potential growth [4][5]. - The relationship between demand and supply is crucial; increasing demand is necessary if supply improvements are due to technological advancements rather than redundant construction [5]. Group 3: Dynamic Perspective on Consumption - A dynamic view of consumption is essential, as the pursuit of a better life is limitless, leading to an ever-expanding variety of consumer goods [6][8]. - Historical trends show significant growth in the variety of consumer products, with China's total number of consumer goods reaching 230 million by Q3 2025, approximately seven times that of 2014 [6][9]. - Quality improvements in consumption are also important, as technological advancements and product innovations drive both the expansion of consumption scale and the enhancement of consumption quality [8][11]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The low consumption rate in China suggests significant potential for growth, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" aiming to significantly increase the household consumption rate as a key economic goal [14].