【招商电子】中芯国际：指引26Q1营收环比持平，26全年资本开支约80亿美元

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q4 2025 revenue reached a record high of $2.489 billion, exceeding guidance due to increased wafer sales and optimized product mix, despite a decline in gross margin due to rising depreciation costs [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $2.489 billion, up 12.8% year-on-year and 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the upper limit of guidance [2][3]. - Gross margin stood at 19.2%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased depreciation [3][4]. - Total capacity reached 1.059 million wafers per month, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36,000 wafers [3][4]. - Wafer shipments (equivalent to 8-inch) totaled 2.515 million wafers, up 26.3% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Market Segments - Revenue from smartphones in Q4 2025 was $535 million, up 0.2% year-on-year and 4.5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Revenue from PCs and tablets was $294 million, down 30.3% year-on-year and 18.9% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Consumer electronics revenue reached $1.177 billion, up 32.7% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Industrial and automotive revenue was $304 million, up 67.8% year-on-year and 7.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong demand for storage [3][4]. Guidance and Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, the company expects revenue to remain flat quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 18-20% [4][20]. - Capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $8 billion, with a focus on expanding capacity and addressing strong customer demand [4][20]. - The company anticipates a 30% year-on-year increase in total depreciation in 2026, which will exert pressure on margins [4][22]. - The company plans to continue expanding capacity, with an expected increase of approximately 40,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 [4][20]. Industry Trends - The demand for storage in AI applications is significantly impacting supply for lower-end products, leading to a shift in production focus towards high-demand areas such as data centers and automotive electronics [21][31]. - The company is adjusting its production capacity to meet the growing demand in specialized storage and related products, while reducing allocation for lower-end mobile and PC products [28][31]. - The overall market is expected to see a reversal in demand dynamics by Q3 2026, as new capacity comes online and supply chain issues are resolved [31].