【宏观】私营部门企稳，非农超预期回升——2026年1月美国非农数据点评（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - The January non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery primarily driven by the private sector rather than government job recovery, reflecting signs of economic stabilization in the U.S. [5] Group 1: Employment Data - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 70,000, with the previous value revised from 50,000 to 48,000 [4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4% [4] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.6% and revised from a previous increase of 3.8% [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Employment in professional and business services saw an increase in temporary services jobs from 6,000 to 9,000, indicating strong demand in the part-time market [6] - The construction sector added 33,000 jobs in January, a significant recovery from the previous loss of 4,000 jobs, supported by declining mortgage rates and housing reform initiatives [6] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, up from 62.4%, indicating a rebound in employment willingness among the middle-aged demographic [8] - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 141,000, contributing to the drop in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.3% [8] - Temporary unemployment decreased by 83,000, while permanent unemployment saw a slight increase of 38,000, suggesting increased hiring demand from businesses [8] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Given the strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's focus is expected to shift towards inflation, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [5][8] - The expectation is that the new Fed chair, after Powell's term ends in May 2026, will adopt a dovish stance and potentially initiate 2-3 rate cuts later in the year [5]