IEA需求预警施压油市：申万期货早间评论-20260213

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, now predicting a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the previous month's estimate of 3.69 million barrels per day [1] - The surplus is primarily driven by increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, despite a slowdown in global oil demand growth [1][3] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, indicating that supply growth is outpacing demand growth [3] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant declines, attributed to a drop in U.S. tech stocks and a decrease in market risk appetite [2][18] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations, although the overall employment market is cooling [2][18] - Despite short-term volatility, long-term factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain supportive for gold prices, with expectations for a return to a steady upward trend [2][18] Group 3: Stock Market Overview - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan, and a reduction in financing balance by 15.917 billion yuan to 26.27824 trillion yuan [4][11] - February is expected to maintain a phase of positive momentum, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][11] - However, potential volatility in overseas capital markets during the upcoming holiday period, particularly due to geopolitical risks, should be monitored [4][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Brazil's cotton exports for the 2025/26 season are projected to reach 14.5 million bales, an increase of 1.5 million bales year-on-year, marking a record high for the third consecutive year [1] - The growth in cotton exports is primarily driven by demand from China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and India, with an expected year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - The COMEX reported a significant drop in registered silver inventory by 3.256882 million ounces, with total inventory falling below 100 million ounces to 98.138005 million ounces [1] - The physical outflow of qualified delivery silver exceeded 4.7 million ounces in a single day, indicating a net outflow from the trading system [1]