数据点评 | 如何理解1月通胀分化？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - January inflation shows divergence, influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, external factors driving increases, and weak demand [2][8] - The decline in PPI has narrowed significantly, primarily due to the increased impact of copper prices and some influence from the base period rotation [2][8] - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [2][8] PPI Analysis - The base period rotation, which occurs every five years, will see a new adjustment starting in 2026, but its impact on monthly PPI year-on-year is minimal at about 0.08 percentage points [2][8] - The rise in copper prices in January was significant, with a month-on-month increase of 9.3%, contributing to a 0.5% increase in PPI [2][8] - Prices in the non-ferrous mining and processing sectors rose by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively, making them the strongest contributors to the PPI increase [2][8] Commodity Price Trends - In contrast, prices for major commodities like crude oil and coal showed weakness, with crude oil prices down 3.1% and refined oil product prices down 2.5%, negatively impacting PPI by -0.08% and -0.15% respectively [12][71] - The utilization rate in downstream sectors has not improved significantly, limiting the upward price transmission from upstream to downstream [12][71] CPI Analysis - The misalignment of the Spring Festival led to a significant year-on-year decline in CPI, which fell by 0.6 percentage points to 0.2% [3][17] - The month-on-month CPI increase was only 0.2%, notably lower than the previous year's pre-Spring Festival performance of 0.6%, indicating overall weakness in CPI [3][17] - Food CPI saw a substantial decline, dropping by 1.8 percentage points to -0.7%, influenced by high pig inventory levels keeping pork prices low [3][17] Core CPI Insights - Excluding the impact of gold prices, the core CPI also showed weakness, falling by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6% [24][72] - The price of gold jewelry rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 77.4%, while other core goods CPI fell by 1 percentage point to -1.7% [24][72] Service CPI Trends - The service CPI was weaker than in previous years, likely due to an early "return home" trend for the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points to 0.1% [4][28] - Rent demand remains weak, causing the rent CPI to continue its decline, down 0.1 percentage points to -0.4% [4][28] - Core service CPI also showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, lower than the previous year's performance of 0.6% [4][28] Future Outlook - The performance of downstream prices will be more critical than the impact of upstream price increases, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of anti-involution policies in the downstream sector [39][73] - Despite potential continued increases in commodity prices, the transmission of upstream price increases to downstream sectors remains obstructed, limiting the recovery of PPI [39][73] - For CPI, the low base in February, combined with high gold prices and improvements in service consumption, may lead to a significant rebound, potentially resulting in a "V-shaped" trend early in the year [39][73]