国泰海通｜电新：美国缺电，AIDC配储星辰大海

Core Viewpoint - The development of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers) is expected to exacerbate the electricity shortage in the U.S. and significantly impact the U.S. power grid, leading to increased demand for energy storage solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Power Grid - AIDC's growth is projected to increase the electricity gap in the U.S., putting more pressure on the power grid. In 2023, U.S. data centers consumed 176 TWh, accounting for 4.4% of total electricity consumption. The IEA forecasts that by 2028, electricity consumption could rise to between 325-580 TWh, representing a CAGR of 26.9% and increasing its share of total U.S. electricity demand to 6.7%-12% [2]. - The rising demand from data centers is expected to lead to higher electricity prices, particularly capacity prices. For instance, total wholesale electricity prices in PJM are projected to increase from $55.46/MWh in 2024 to $80.67/MWh in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 45% [2]. - The average queue time for data centers to connect to the grid in the U.S. is currently 1-3 years, with some areas like Northern Virginia experiencing wait times of up to 7 years. Approximately 70% of transformers in the U.S. power grid are already in "overdue service" condition [2]. Group 2: Energy Storage Solutions - The 800V DC (Direct Current) architecture is emerging as the optimal solution for next-generation power distribution, minimizing conversion losses and wiring volume in data centers. This architecture is crucial for managing power fluctuations during high-demand periods [3]. - Short-term strategies include using energy storage for peak shaving and frequency regulation, which can alleviate grid pressure and reduce connection times for data centers. In the medium to long term, renewable energy storage is expected to become the mainstream self-supply form of power [3]. - The economic viability of energy storage solutions is highlighted, with a Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) of $52/MWh for a 6-hour solar storage system after subsidies, which is competitive with gas turbines and more favorable than Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) at $82/MWh [3]. Group 3: Future Demand for Data Center Energy Storage - Initially, data center energy storage is expected to serve peak shaving functions, with a configuration duration of approximately 4 hours and a 20% capacity. However, as data centers' electricity demand grows, they are projected to account for over 10% of U.S. electricity demand, leading to a significant increase in storage capacity requirements [4]. - Future projections indicate that from 2026 to 2030, the demand for data center energy storage will grow from 10.1 GWh to 165.7 GWh, with a CAGR of 101%, resulting in a cumulative demand of 353.9 GWh over four years [4].