国泰海通｜地产：租赁住房REITs投资体系——REITs框架研究系列二

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the centralized rental housing market is entering a growth phase driven by dual factors: policy benefits and declining interest rates, which help to resolve profitability challenges [1]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Multiple policy incentives and macroeconomic interest rate declines are significantly reducing financing costs, allowing rental enterprises to gradually establish their business models [1][2]. - The supply of rental housing is increasing notably, with the market structure shifting towards state-owned enterprises as the main players, while domestic investors prefer risk diversification through entrusted operations, and foreign investors favor self-operated high-end assets for better risk compensation [1]. Group 2: REITs Asset Characteristics - Rental housing REITs primarily include public rental housing, guaranteed rental housing, and market-oriented apartments, each exhibiting distinct characteristics in tenant structure, revenue models, and lease stability [2]. - Public and guaranteed rental housing targets low-income groups and new citizens, benefiting from low land and tax costs, high lease renewal rates, and demonstrating "high stability, low elasticity" cash flow characteristics [2]. - Market-oriented rental housing caters to a broader audience with potential for rent growth but faces higher marketing costs and tax burdens, making lease stability more susceptible to market fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Evaluation Framework - A comprehensive evaluation framework for rental housing REITs is proposed, encompassing five dimensions: regional economy, asset quality, operational capability, management quality, and market/policy environment [2]. - The framework assigns a weight of 37% to operational management capability, focusing on occupancy rates, rent growth rates, EBITDA profit margins, and cash flow distribution rates [2]. - Asset quality is weighted at 26%, while regional economic factors account for 20%, assessing the economic level, population inflow rates, and rent-to-income ratios of the project’s location [2]. Group 4: Expansion Mechanism - The normalization of REITs expansion mechanisms will enhance asset valuation through three pathways: scale effects, risk diversification, and improved expectations [3]. - Expansion not only leads to growth in scale but also value reconfiguration, as it can dilute fixed management costs and directly enhance net operating income (NOI) profit margins, thereby increasing DCF valuations [3]. - By injecting regionally complementary and tenant-structured differentiated assets, the risk of vacancy in single assets can be effectively reduced, enhancing cash flow stability and lowering capitalization rates [3].