【广发宏观钟林楠】1月金融数据简评

Core Viewpoint - The January social financing data indicates a stable start to the year, with a total increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, surpassing market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 1654 billion yuan. However, the growth rate of social financing stock has slightly decreased to 8.2% [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In January, social financing increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market average expectation of 6.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1654 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock is 8.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][5][6]. Entity Loans - Entity loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 3194 billion yuan. This is attributed to several factors, including a high base from the previous year and a balanced credit supply-demand environment [2][7][9]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bonds increased by 9764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2831 billion yuan, indicating a proactive fiscal approach. Corporate bonds saw an increase of 5033 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 579 billion yuan [3][9][10]. Bank Acceptance Bills - Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 6293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1639 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in the scale of bills discounted to banks [3][9]. Monetary Supply - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by cross-border capital flows and improved risk appetite among micro-entities. M2 increased by 9%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, supported by factors such as interbank investment expansion [4][10]. Overall Assessment - Overall, the January credit and social financing data shows a stable start. Despite the lack of significant recovery in medium to long-term loans indicating weak entity investment activities, improvements in non-entity activities have enhanced liquidity in the real sector, contributing to the rebound in M1 and M2 growth rates [4][11].