数据点评 | “强复苏”还是“弱平衡”？——2026年1月美国就业数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [1][5] - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% [1][5] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [1][5] Employment Data Analysis - The education and health services sector contributed significantly to job growth, with the NBD model amplifying the reported increase [2][23] - The construction sector saw an addition of 33,000 jobs, primarily driven by non-residential contractors, indicating a correlation with data center investment rather than residential construction [2][23] - The unemployment rate's decline and the rise in labor participation, particularly among the 25-54 age group, suggest an increase in employment willingness among U.S. residents [2] Future Outlook - The January employment data may contain some discrepancies, indicating a "weak balance" in the job market, with potential negative impacts from tariffs and immigration policies [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance in the first half of the year, with attention on upcoming CPI data to gauge inflation trends [3] - The annual benchmark revision indicates that the average monthly job addition for 2025 is now projected at only 15,000, marking the weakest performance since 2003, excluding crisis years [9] Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and stock markets all experienced upward movements, reflecting reduced concerns over layoffs [12][18] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.2%, while gold prices fell in response to the adjusted interest rate expectations [12][21]