月度前瞻 | 开年经济“新变化”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic changes at the beginning of 2026, highlighting the resilience of the economy despite previous downward pressures, with a focus on production, demand, and price trends [8][66]. Economic Monthly Data - Industrial value-added growth is projected to be 4.8% in November 2025, 5.2% in December 2025, and 5.4% in January-February 2026 [2]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by -2.6% in November 2025, -3.8% in December 2025, and -9.8% in January-February 2026 [2]. - Real estate investment is forecasted to drop significantly by -15.9% in November 2025, -17.2% in December 2025, and -31.1% in January-February 2026 [2]. Production Changes - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January 2026, indicating a significant drop in production, likely due to the early return of workers during the Spring Festival [3][10]. - Despite the drop in January, the average PMI over the past two months shows a recovery trend, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 49.7% compared to November 2025 [10]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in the metallurgical chain increased by 2.2 percentage points compared to December 2025, reflecting a recovery in production [14]. Demand Highlights - Export demand is expected to remain strong due to a delayed Spring Festival, extending the "rush for exports" window, with foreign trade cargo volume increasing by 13.9% year-on-year [5][25]. - Social retail sales are projected to see a slight recovery in January-February 2026, with an expected growth of around 1.9% due to the long holiday period and increased service consumption support [31]. Investment Outlook - Investment is anticipated to improve moderately due to supportive policies and increased government debt financing, with a positive outlook for infrastructure investment [6][39]. - The operating rates for asphalt and grinding are expected to maintain resilience, indicating stable investment activity in early 2026 [39]. Price Trends - PPI is expected to show weak recovery, with January PPI projected to rise to -1.4% year-on-year, while CPI is anticipated to exhibit a "V-shaped" trend due to the timing of the Spring Festival [46][56]. - The core CPI is expected to remain low, influenced by weak demand and reduced government subsidies, despite some support from rising gold prices [56].