全球降息潮或近尾声——全球货币转向跟踪第11期

Global Monetary Policy Shift Tracking - Since the beginning of 2026, among 26 major economies tracked, only one has cut rates (Israel) and one has raised rates (Australia), while the US, Eurozone, and Japan have kept their policy rates unchanged [3][15]. - The Federal Reserve's current rate is maintained at 3.5%-3.75%, with a hawkish tone in the January FOMC meeting, indicating a strong economy and a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market expectations of 2 rate cuts in 2026 [16][23]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has also kept rates unchanged, with inflation stabilizing within the target range, leading to expectations that the ECB may not cut rates further in 2026 [17][23]. - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is in a "quasi-stagflation" state, with expectations of 2 rate hikes in 2026, but faces challenges due to supply shortages and inflationary pressures [18][24]. Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has risen to approximately $2.94 trillion, nearing the desired range of 10%-12% of GDP, indicating a recovery in liquidity [7][34]. - Various liquidity spreads have improved, with the EFFR-IOER spread stable at -1bp and the SOFR-EFFR spread averaging around 2bp, reflecting a slightly tight liquidity environment [8][42]. - The US Treasury market shows stable liquidity, with slight increases in bid-ask spreads for 10Y Treasuries, while credit risk premiums remain low, indicating a stable credit market [10][51][57].