岁启新程 共话未来 | 雪球资管新年寄语与基金经理展望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition into a "K-shaped economy," highlighting the shift in growth drivers from traditional industries to advanced technology sectors like AI, leading to significant economic structural changes [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The K-shaped economy is characterized by long-term high interest rates, with new economic sectors being less sensitive to these rates, thus supporting persistent inflation [6]. - Major economies (such as the US, Europe, and Japan) face limited room for monetary policy easing, increasing the risk of global liquidity tightening [6]. - The intensification of de-globalization and geopolitical tensions, particularly US policies, is causing disorderly restructuring of global supply chains and capital flows, amplifying market volatility [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "structural layout" and a systematic approach to risk management, transitioning from a model that increases overall risk exposure to one that focuses on precise asset allocation based on macroeconomic insights [6][7]. - The strategy involves dynamic sector rotation throughout the year, with specific allocations planned for agriculture, chemicals, consumer goods, and outdoor sports, aiming for a complete cycle of "bottom entry and bubble exit" [8]. - The focus is on performance certainty, avoiding speculative investments and prioritizing stocks with stable net profit growth and return on equity (ROE) [8]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience accelerated growth, expanding beyond innovative drugs to include medical devices, distribution, and services, leading to a "multi-point bloom" in the sector [9]. - The strategy for the pharmaceutical sector involves a balanced allocation across innovative drugs, high-consumption medical products, and undervalued biotech assets to capitalize on the industry's expanding opportunities [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in 2026, with small-cap stocks showing upward potential as their price-to-book ratios break out of historical ranges [10]. - The investment approach will adapt to market conditions, whether driven by profit growth or high volatility, utilizing a mature risk control model to capture excess returns [10]. - The focus remains on maintaining a high portfolio allocation based on confidence in core asset performance and the long-term narrative of China's economic resurgence [8][10]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Leading domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies are gaining strong competitive advantages globally, driven by high innovation, execution capabilities, and efficient operations [11]. - The rapid rise of China's pharmaceutical R&D capabilities is creating numerous high-quality investment opportunities, with a focus on identifying undervalued growth stocks in the current market environment [11].