2025总结与展望｜行业篇：践行控增量、去库存路线，全面迈入稳市场周期

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry into a stable market cycle, focusing on controlling new supply and reducing inventory to stabilize the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing is expected to reach 890 million square meters, with a sales amount of 8.4 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 9% and 13% respectively, with the decline in sales area narrowing by approximately 4 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - The real estate industry is currently in a critical phase of stabilizing after a decline, with the transaction volume expected to show a narrowing decline in 2025, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The demand fundamentals indicate that the urban population has reached 940 million, with an average housing area exceeding 40 square meters, suggesting that the annual reasonable demand for new housing remains between 800-900 million square meters [3]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The macro-control in 2025 will adhere to the main line of "controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," with local authorities implementing market stabilization policies [5]. - By the end of May, the sales area and sales amount of newly built commercial housing had decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest decline since the third quarter of 2023 [6]. - The government has introduced various policies to stabilize the market, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and adjustments to housing loan interest rates, which have been positively received by over 50 provinces and cities [5]. Group 3: Construction and Inventory Management - New construction and completion areas are expected to continue declining, with new construction projected to decrease by around 20% in 2025, reflecting the policy directive to control new supply [10]. - The completion area is expected to be 600 million square meters in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 18%, indicating progress in project delivery and risk management [10]. - The opening-to-sales ratio has shown a trend of rising in the first half of the year and falling in the second half, with a historical low of 63% expected by the end of 2025 [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with sales volume and amount projected to decline at a slower rate, as the industry accumulates stabilizing momentum [16]. - Inventory reduction remains a priority, with new construction expected to decrease by around 10% in 2026, while policies will focus on dynamic land supply adjustments [16]. - The industry is moving towards a healthier ecosystem, with the investment-to-sales ratio expected to align more closely, indicating a shift from expansion to optimization of existing resources [17].