透视2026物价新局：基期轮换、体感差异与回升之路｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent release of January CPI and PPI data by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting the importance of the five-year base period rotation and the transparency of data publication, which reflects changes in consumer spending patterns and impacts residents' perceptions of prices [5][6]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Data Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival [15]. - The PPI in January 2026 was -1.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals due to investment in emerging industries like artificial intelligence [16]. - The article emphasizes the need for a combined analysis of January and February CPI data due to the Spring Festival's impact on price fluctuations [15]. Group 2: Changes in CPI Weighting - The CPI's weighting system underwent a significant adjustment, with the new base period starting in 2025, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and the introduction of new categories such as internet medical services and elderly products [8][11]. - The weight of food and beverages, clothing, housing, and other categories has been adjusted, with food and beverage weights decreasing while service weights have increased, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [8][20]. - The average impact of the base period rotation on monthly CPI year-on-year indices is estimated to be approximately 0.06 percentage points [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Policy Recommendations - The article highlights the ongoing issue of low prices in the Chinese economy, with the GDP deflator index negative for 11 consecutive quarters and PPI negative for 40 months, necessitating stronger measures to promote reasonable price recovery [20]. - Current macroeconomic policies are aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting price recovery through fiscal measures and adjustments in monetary policy [21]. - Long-term price recovery will depend on effectively addressing supply-demand imbalances, including wage growth mechanisms and optimizing income distribution [22].