能源、必选消费和美债领涨2026！华尔街的“AI交易”被“AI颠覆”了

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that AI, initially seen as a strong investment theme, has transformed into a threat, particularly impacting light-asset companies that may be replaced by AI rather than the tech giants developing it [1][6][7] - The S&P 500 index experienced its worst performance since November until a rebound on Friday due to mild inflation data, highlighting the widespread panic regarding AI disruption across various markets [2][4] - The profitability expansion accumulated by white-collar industries such as software companies, wealth management firms, and tax advisors over the past decade has been revalued within weeks, affecting even the private credit market that lends to these companies [3] Group 2 - Wall Street's previously confident bets have failed dramatically over six weeks, with cash allocations hitting a historical low and hedge positions at their minimum, leading to a collapse of consensus trades [5][8] - The sectors that have performed well include energy, consumer staples, and U.S. Treasury bonds, while the consensus bets on AI have faltered significantly [5] - Investors are questioning the return timelines of large capital expenditures by tech giants and whether remaining cash can continue to support stock buybacks, with more stocks being harmed by AI than helped [8][9] Group 3 - Two forces are exacerbating volatility in the U.S. stock market: low cash allocations and interconnected leverage networks that can trigger sell-offs across seemingly unrelated investments [12][13] - The VIX index recently surpassed the widely watched 20 mark, indicating rising market stress, even though it does not show panic, as the skew of put options remains historically high [18][19] - The performance of investment-grade bond ETFs relative to high-yield bond ETFs has improved, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching a two-month low [20][21] Group 4 - Investors are adjusting their strategies, with the S&P 500 index still hovering near historical highs and credit spreads at ten-year lows, but there is an increase in hedging activities as indicated by the rising put-call ratio [22][24] - ETFs tracking companies with high shareholder returns attracted $3.6 billion in new funds this month, indicating a shift in investor focus [25] - Analysts suggest that if negative news regarding AI disruption subsides and volatility decreases, the U.S. stock market may support upward movement, but there is a conflict between market consensus and resilient economic indicators [26]