在后视镜里幻想一夜暴富，正在让你错失机会！

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dangers of hindsight bias in investing, highlighting that while it is easy to identify past opportunities and risks, it is much more challenging to predict future market movements and make informed decisions based on current data [3][8]. Group 1: Common Hindsight Biases - Investors often believe they can identify the best-performing assets, such as gold and commodities, due to geopolitical tensions and economic crises [4]. - The article notes that in 2023, the U.S. stock market led global gains, driven by advancements in AI technology, which reinforces the belief that understanding market logic can help seize opportunities [6]. - Many investors think they can avoid every risk, but historical events like trade wars and financial crises show that risks often have early warning signs that are only clear in retrospect [7]. Group 2: Investment Traps Hidden in Hindsight - The article points out that while past market trends appear clear, future predictions remain uncertain due to the complex interplay of various factors [9]. - Investors are often attracted to past performance, such as the significant gains in precious metals and technology sectors, while neglecting the associated risks of substantial drawdowns [10]. - Relying on past experiences can distort future expectations, leading to overly cautious or biased investment decisions [11]. Group 3: Correct Use of Hindsight - The article suggests focusing on the long-term pricing logic of assets rather than short-term performance, as historical data shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities generally appreciate over time [13]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding long-term drivers, such as corporate earnings for stocks and market interest rates for bonds, while avoiding the temptation to react to short-term market fluctuations [14]. - Investors should reflect on their own investment psychology to avoid common mistakes like panic selling during downturns or chasing high returns without a strategy [15].