Memory后续怎么走？Bernstein开始看空Kioxia

Core Viewpoint - Kioxia's recent financial report indicates a mixed outlook, with a strong profit guidance for the next quarter but concerns over its pricing strategy and competitive position in the NAND market [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - Kioxia reported an operating profit of 142.8 billion yen for Q3, slightly above market expectations but with an average selling price (ASP) increase of only about 10%, lagging behind competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix [2][6]. - The company provided a profit guidance range of 436 billion to 526 billion yen for the next quarter, significantly higher than market expectations of 250 billion to 300 billion yen, driven by price increases across all application areas [2][8]. Analyst Opinions - Bernstein - Bearish View - Concerns over high valuation and lack of DRAM business, leading to a cautious outlook on Kioxia's long-term competitiveness [4][5]. - Kioxia's ASP growth is lagging behind competitors, primarily due to lower pricing for major client Apple [6]. - Bernstein maintains a low target price of 7,000 yen, suggesting a significant downside risk [7]. - Bank of America - Bullish View - Upgraded target price to 32,000 yen, citing strong demand driven by generative AI and limited expansion among global NAND manufacturers [8]. - Profit forecast for FY2027 increased by 112% to 2.3 trillion yen based on Q3 performance [8]. - Goldman Sachs - Neutral View - Target price adjusted to 24,000 yen, indicating limited upside due to cyclical nature of the NAND industry and existing valuation ceilings [9][10]. - Highlights risks related to supply-demand dynamics and reliance on major clients, which could affect long-term profitability [10][11]. - GSR - Bullish View - Notable price increases in data center products, including a 70% hike accepted by Apple, indicating a shift in market perception regarding Kioxia's pricing power [13]. - Transition from a volatile commodity model to a stable industrial product model through long-term agreements, enhancing profitability and reducing performance volatility [13].