春节周重磅前瞻：美联储最爱通胀指标，DeepSeek V4或发布

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant upcoming economic events and data releases, particularly focusing on the AI industry during the Chinese New Year, macroeconomic indicators, and geopolitical developments that may impact global markets [6][7][11]. Group 1: AI Industry Developments - The "AI Spring Festival" is set to be a major theme, with the first Indian AI Summit featuring prominent tech leaders like NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang and Google's CEO Sundar Pichai from February 15 to 20 [9][10]. - DeepSeek's new flagship model V4 is expected to be released around mid-February, showcasing improvements in programming capabilities that may surpass existing top models in the market [8]. - Google is set to launch the Pixel 10a smartphone and Android 17 Beta 1 on February 18, coinciding with the AI developments [12]. Group 2: Key Macroeconomic Data and Policy - The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the December PCE inflation data and the fourth-quarter GDP initial estimate on February 20, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase in core PCE, raising the year-on-year rate to 2.9% [7]. - The fourth-quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.8% [7]. - The FOMC meeting minutes from January are anticipated to show increasing support for a prolonged pause in interest rate cuts, although inflation trends may allow for a potential 100 basis points cut later in the year [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Events - The longest Chinese New Year holiday, lasting nine days from February 15 to 23, will see major stock exchanges, including those in China and Hong Kong, closed [13][14]. - The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump on February 20, which could significantly impact trade policies and result in over $16 billion in monthly losses for importers if deemed unconstitutional [11]. - Japan will hold a prime ministerial election on February 18, with the current cabinet expected to resign, which may lead to fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate [19].