全球经济 2026 ：脆弱的增长——六个结构性变化｜国际

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The global economy is characterized by "fragile growth," with low growth and multiple risks accumulating [1] - Historical data shows a decline in global economic growth rates, with projections indicating a further decrease to 2.5%-2.7% from 2025 to 2030 [3] - The structural damage from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic has not been adequately repaired, leading to long-term impacts on labor supply and productivity [3] Group 2: Changes in Global Trade Patterns - The trade policies of the Trump administration have significantly impacted global trade dynamics, with tariffs on Chinese goods increasing from 3.75% to 19.6% during his first term [5] - By 2025, tariffs on Chinese imports reached as high as 145%, affecting trade relations and prompting China to diversify its export markets [5][6] - The U.S. has implemented unilateral tariffs that disrupt global trade rules, leading to a reconfiguration of trade flows and investment patterns [7] Group 3: Fiscal Sustainability Risks - Global government spending as a percentage of GDP has risen from about 22% in 1960 to 40%-50% currently, while government debt has increased from 60% to 97% of GDP [10] - Rising interest costs on government debt are a significant factor in fiscal unsustainability, with the U.S. interest payments currently at 3.4% of GDP [12] - The U.S. has entered a scenario where the cost of debt servicing exceeds economic growth rates, indicating a clear risk of unsustainable debt levels [14] Group 4: Accumulation of Financial Risks - The decline in bank capital adequacy ratios post-2008 has raised concerns about financial stability, with core Tier 1 capital ratios dropping from 13% to 11.9% [18] - Non-bank financial institutions have expanded their risk exposure significantly, which could exacerbate financial instability during market downturns [18] - The U.S. stock market is experiencing increased concentration and elevated valuations, particularly in technology stocks, raising concerns about potential corrections [18] Group 5: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - Trust in the U.S. dollar has decreased, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves falling from around 70% to approximately 57% [22] - The divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index following tariff announcements indicates a loss of confidence in the dollar [22] - The development of U.S. dollar stablecoins has not fully restored confidence, as their backing is not purely in dollars, leading to liquidity and credit risks [24] Group 6: Rising Uncertainty - Global military spending has increased to $2.7 trillion, surpassing levels seen during the Cold War, contributing to economic instability [26] - Non-economic factors such as extreme weather, resource shortages, and cybersecurity threats are becoming more prominent risks in the global landscape [28] - The shift from a focus on efficiency and globalization to a more conflict-ridden and uncertain environment poses challenges to traditional economic and financial frameworks [28] Group 7: Conclusion on Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 will face multiple pressures, maintaining a state of "fragile growth" due to structural changes in growth, trade, fiscal pressures, financial risks, dollar credibility, and rising uncertainties [29]