美国1月成屋销售大幅下滑——海外周报第127期

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US and Japan, highlighting significant trends in housing sales, employment, and inflation [2][10] - It emphasizes the mixed signals in the US economy, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [2][4] Group 1: Important Data Review - US January existing home sales fell significantly, with an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, down 8.4% month-over-month, against an expectation of a 4.15 million unit decline [12] - The US non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 65,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year [12] - Japan's Prime Minister announced plans to implement tax cuts, including a proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food and beverages for two years, potentially reducing tax revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen annually [13] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) rose to 2.70% for the week ending February 7, up from 2.21% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [15] - Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) also increased to 0.10% for the week ending February 8, compared to 0.02% the prior week [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.5% year-over-year for the week ending February 6, down from 6.7% the previous week [18] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, down from 6.11% the previous week [23] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with 26,000 jobs added over the four weeks ending January 24, up from 20,000 the previous week [28] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000 for the week ending February 7, down from 232,000 the previous week [31] - The number of job vacancies fell, with the Indeed job vacancy index averaging 103.5, down from 104.2 in December [36] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 306.54, down 1.0% week-over-week and 4.2% over the past two weeks [6] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.77 per gallon, up 0.8% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.537, down from 0.755 the previous week [46] - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -20.1909 basis points, down from -17.9347 basis points the previous week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan [52]