达利欧万字长文：旧秩序已死，世界重回“丛林法则”，贸易战和资本战将成常态

Core Viewpoint - The world has entered the sixth stage of the "Big Cycle," characterized by a breakdown of the post-1945 world order, leading to a return to power struggles among major nations, with trade wars, technology wars, and capital wars becoming the norm, potentially escalating into military conflicts [3][4]. Group 1: Global Order and Geopolitical Dynamics - The post-World War II order established in 1945 has completely collapsed, with major powers no longer bound by international law, reverting to primitive power struggles [3][4]. - The Munich Security Conference reached a rare consensus among global leaders on the end of the old order, with significant statements from leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizing the need for preparedness in this new era [3][4][13]. - International relations will follow the "law of the jungle," lacking a supranational authority to resolve disputes, leading to conflicts resolved through threats or warfare [3][4][15]. Group 2: Capital Market Implications - This marks the beginning of a highly uncertain period for capital markets, with economic tools being weaponized, and traditional safe-haven strategies potentially failing [4][12]. - Investors must be aware that wealth and power transfers will occur in drastic ways during this stage, with historical precedents indicating that military parity between opposing powers heightens the risk of war [4][12]. Group 3: Types of Wars and Power Struggles - The article outlines five primary forms of conflict between nations: trade/economic wars, technology wars, geopolitical wars, capital wars, and military wars, with the first four often serving as precursors to military conflict [5][15]. - The current global situation reflects a "prisoner's dilemma," where opposing sides are unable to trust each other, leading to a cycle of escalation [5][15]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - A detailed historical review of the 1930s illustrates how economic conflicts exacerbated domestic wealth struggles, leading to the rise of populism and authoritarianism, ultimately culminating in World War II [7][27]. - The economic warfare and capital struggles that preceded World War II serve as a reference for understanding the current geopolitical landscape, highlighting the potential for similar patterns to emerge [7][27]. Group 5: Capital Warfare Strategies - The article identifies three classic capital warfare strategies: asset freezing/seizure, cutting off access to capital markets, and embargoes/blockades, which are increasingly relevant in the current geopolitical climate [8][9][10]. - The use of these strategies poses significant challenges to the safety of traditional financial assets during escalating conflicts [11][12]. Group 6: Economic Policies During War - During wartime, governments typically implement strict controls, including rationing, price controls, and capital controls, often leading to significant debt issuance and currency devaluation [12][46]. - Historical evidence suggests that gold remains the most reliable store of wealth during wartime, as credit often becomes unreliable or devalued [12].