“利空出尽”？Coinbase暴跌后的反弹，真的是市场想多了吗

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase's recent quarterly report shows no positive aspects from a fundamental perspective, with declining trading volumes and income under pressure, indicating a highly sensitive business to digital asset prices and retail sentiment [1][16] Group 1: Market Reaction - Despite the disappointing earnings report, Coinbase's stock price rose unexpectedly, as some investors chose to buy at lower prices, indicating that the "failed report" did not trigger new panic [2][22] - The key issue is that when bad news no longer drives prices down, market focus shifts from whether fundamentals will worsen to whether the worst-case scenario has already been fully priced in [2][6] Group 2: Pre-report Dynamics - The decline in Coinbase's stock price occurred prior to the earnings report, as the volatility of Bitcoin and major crypto assets decreased, leading to reduced retail trading activity and lowered profit expectations for crypto exchanges [4][6] - The "weakness" presented in the earnings report was not a sudden event but rather a process that had been repeatedly discussed and priced in [6][7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The rebound in Coinbase's stock is not due to an improvement in fundamentals but rather a reflection of a market that has already priced in the worst expectations [16][22] - The current market sentiment indicates that the most aggressive pessimistic pricing phase may have passed, with Coinbase entering a bottoming phase characterized by a tug-of-war for new catalysts [17][19] Group 4: Trading Behavior - The recent rebound is driven by a change in funding logic, where the market has shifted from trend trading to position-based speculation, with a significant reduction in overall market positions and a defensive sentiment [10][12] - The remaining selling pressure decreases significantly after large-scale liquidation, allowing for a potential price stabilization as some investors perceive an improved risk-reward ratio [11][12] Group 5: Conclusion - The rebound does not signify a fundamental improvement but rather a calm confirmation of reality, where the market acknowledges that the pressures have been absorbed and traded repeatedly [21][22] - This phenomenon is not unique to Coinbase, as similar patterns can be observed in other high-volatility, cyclical industries, indicating a shift from one-sided sentiment to rational pricing [19][22]