宏观调控精准施策 护航经济高质量发展｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic transition in China, highlighting the balance between economic resilience and challenges such as domestic demand, real estate market adjustments, and bank net interest margins [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Coordination - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for policy support and reform innovation, focusing on maximizing economic potential and ensuring effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [3]. - A "gradual reduction in reserve requirement and interest rates" is anticipated over the next two years, with a preference for reserve requirement cuts over interest rate reductions due to the current low net interest margins of commercial banks [5][6]. - The Chinese monetary policy framework differs from Western countries, as it relies more on reserve requirements rather than interest rates, allowing for significant room for reserve requirement cuts [7]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have shown some effectiveness, with a narrowing decline in key indicators such as new housing sales and funding availability [10][11]. - The key to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market lies in improving liquidity and addressing employment and income expectations among residents [11][12]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The article stresses the importance of investing in human capital to drive high-quality economic growth, advocating for increased fiscal spending on education, healthcare, and social services [13][14]. - The current financial structure in China, dominated by indirect financing through banks, needs to evolve towards a more direct financing model to better support innovation and new economic drivers [13]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Activation - Short-term fiscal measures, such as targeted transfer payments and consumption vouchers, are deemed more urgent and effective in boosting consumer spending compared to long-term tax reforms [16][17]. - Specific measures to guide demand towards service consumption in areas like elder care and childcare include government procurement and tax incentives for related services [18][19]. Group 5: Macro-Control Policies - The article suggests optimizing consumer subsidy policies and increasing support for service consumption in the aging population and childcare sectors to stimulate demand [21][22].