2025总结与展望｜城市篇：2025预期筑底与探底回稳并行，2026弱复苏与深分化的“L”型横盘维持

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese residential market in 2025 is expected to stabilize with a focus on "volume and price stabilization, structural differentiation, and expectation reshaping," marking a transition from high-speed growth to a new phase centered on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" [2][27]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the real estate market is entering a critical phase of stabilization and recovery after a deep adjustment cycle, with policies shifting from "supporting and alleviating" to "optimizing and boosting" market confidence [3][4]. - The overall housing transaction demand remains relatively stable, with some second- and third-tier cities experiencing year-on-year growth of less than 10% [5][10]. - The total housing transaction volume in 30 key cities is approximately 326 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, indicating a stabilization of effective housing demand [4][10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new housing supply continues to shrink, with a total new supply of approximately 92.65 million square meters in 30 key cities, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [10]. - The new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities is about 116 million square meters, down 18% year-on-year, reflecting a persistent supply-demand imbalance [10]. - The new housing supply-demand ratio remains around 0.81, indicating a continuous state of undersupply in the new housing market [10]. Group 3: City Differentiation - Significant differentiation is observed among cities, with core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing resilience due to strong demand and policy support, while many second- and third-tier cities face weak fundamentals and high inventory [6][12]. - The market in first-tier cities is characterized by a "price-for-volume" strategy, with transaction volumes in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen increasing by 7% and 4% respectively [19][20]. - The differentiation extends to product types, with high-end residential products in core areas experiencing faster sales compared to less desirable projects [6][12]. Group 4: Second-Hand Market Trends - The second-hand housing market has reached a new high, with a total transaction area of approximately 214 million square meters, 1.85 times that of new housing, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [14][19]. - The second-hand market operates independently from the new housing market, with significant price adjustments occurring, particularly for older and lower-quality properties [14][19]. - The price gap between new and second-hand homes is widening, with second-hand homes increasingly appealing to buyers due to competitive pricing [14][19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of "weak recovery and deep differentiation" in 2026, with a focus on stabilizing policies and improving housing quality [22][27]. - The macroeconomic environment is anticipated to provide a foundation for the real estate market's stabilization, with continued support for demand-side policies [22][23]. - The overall housing market is projected to see a slight increase in transaction volume, while price stabilization will vary significantly across different cities and property types [25][26].