“这个动作，真正的变盘信号！”美银Hartnett最新警告

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in AI capital expenditure from a "money printing machine" to a "money shredding machine," indicating potential liquidity and asset pricing upheaval [2] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America has raised his market warning level, emphasizing that the "AI disruption trade" is rapidly spreading from the tech sector to traditional services [2][3] - The projected capital expenditure for hyperscalers has surged to $740 billion for 2026, up from a previous estimate of $670 billion, which poses financial risks [4] Group 2 - Hartnett warns that such massive investments could drive the free cash flow of the "Magnificent 7" tech companies towards zero or even negative [5] - To sustain this level of capital expenditure, tech giants may be forced into a large-scale bond issuance, indicating a shift towards "creditization" of previously strong balance sheets [8] - The narrative in the market is shifting from "awe of AI" to "being impoverished by AI," suggesting a growing concern over the financial implications of AI investments [9] Group 3 - A clear trading signal is identified: a major AI hyperscaler announcing a reduction in capital expenditure could trigger a significant rotation from tech giants to Main Street assets [10] - The disruption effect of AI is not limited to tech stocks; it is rapidly spreading to traditional service sectors, with various industries experiencing significant impacts [11][12] - Hartnett notes that once a sector is recognized as an "AI victim," its stock price recovery may take a long time, as seen with Indian tech stocks [12] Group 4 - Political factors are intensifying the asset rotation, with Hartnett highlighting the upcoming State of the Union address as a critical moment for potential policy shifts [14][16] - The article discusses the disparity in support for Trump between Wall Street and Main Street, with rising dissatisfaction among the public regarding inflation [15] - Hartnett suggests that if there is no "Trump bump" post-address, the government may adopt more aggressive affordability policies, benefiting small-cap stocks over tech giants [17] Group 5 - Despite a recent influx of $463 billion into global equities, the Bull & Bear Indicator remains in the "sell" zone, indicating ongoing caution in risk assets [21] - Hartnett emphasizes that the sell signal for risk assets, which began in December, is still valid until panic-driven cash hoarding occurs [22] - The article details recent capital flows, showing significant movements into stocks, bonds, and cash, with notable declines in tech and cryptocurrency assets [23][24] Group 6 - Hartnett reflects on the "great rotation" over the past 50 years, where major political and financial events have shifted asset leadership, suggesting a new cycle is emerging [25][26] - The next structural leaders are expected to be emerging markets and small-cap stocks, driven by shifts in service and manufacturing sectors [28] - The article concludes with a perspective on global rebalancing, emphasizing low asset allocation in China and India, which are now among the world's largest economies [31]