GGII：锂电正极材料“量价齐升”

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery cathode material market in China is expected to experience significant growth, with a projected shipment volume of 5.025 million tons in 2025, representing a 50% year-on-year increase from 2023's 2.48 million tons, and is anticipated to reach over 6.5 million tons in 2026 due to sustained downstream demand, stabilized upstream raw material prices, and technological advancements [5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The lithium battery cathode material industry is characterized by a strong growth trajectory, with 2025 being a pivotal year for the sector [5][8]. - The main contributors to this growth include the increasing demand from the global electric vehicle market and energy storage sectors, which are expected to drive the shipment of power batteries to 1.1 TWh and energy storage batteries to over 600 GWh in 2025 [8]. Group 2: Product Segmentation - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) maintains a dominant position with shipments of 3.87 million tons in 2025, a 58% increase, accounting for 77.4% of the market share, driven by its cost and safety advantages [5][8]. - Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) materials are projected to ship 830,000 tons, a 27.4% increase, with a notable shift in product structure towards high-nickel variants in digital lithium batteries [5][8]. - Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO) is expected to see shipments of 125,000 tons, a 19% increase, fueled by rising demand in digital products [5][8]. Group 3: Emerging Materials - New materials such as Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate (LMFP) are expected to see explosive growth, with shipments rising from 8,000 tons in 2024 to 30,000 tons in 2025, marking a 275% increase [9]. - Lithium-Rich Manganese-Based (LRM) materials are also gaining traction, with shipments expected to reach 4,000 tons, benefiting from the trend towards lower cobalt usage [10]. Group 4: Raw Material Price Trends - By early 2026, there is a significant increase in the prices of key raw materials, with cobalt prices soaring from 168,000 CNY/ton to approximately 460,000 CNY/ton, a rise of over 170% [12][13]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by about 60%, from 82,000 CNY/ton to a range of 120,000-140,000 CNY/ton [13]. - Overall, the average price of cathode materials is projected to rise by over 30% in 2026 compared to 2025 due to the recovery of raw material prices and increased processing costs [12].