新年特辑 | 做积累的事：2025对冲研投公众号文章精选

Group 1: Macro Economic Research - The article discusses the potential for a "hawkish" new leadership at the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on Kevin Warsh's views [4] - It highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. and China's economic cycles and the implications of tariffs [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and their connection to larger economic cycles, suggesting a significant shift in China's economic strategy [4] Group 2: Commodity Futures Research - The narrative around commodity trading is evolving, with a focus on the psychological aspects of greed and fear influencing market prices [4] - There is a warning about the potential illusion of a "rotating bull market" in commodities, urging caution among investors [4] - The article provides insights into the current phase of the commodity cycle, particularly regarding chemical products and their market dynamics [4] Group 3: Selected Articles from Experts - Notable figures like Ray Dalio and 洪灝 provide insights into the future of commodities and the Chinese stock market, predicting significant movements and potential bull markets [6] - The article discusses the implications of trade wars and how they may lead to unexpected favorable outcomes for China [6] - It also addresses the potential for interest rate cuts in 2025, with predictions of a 0.75 percentage point decrease and a 1 percentage point reserve requirement reduction [6] Group 4: Futures Variety Handbook - The article includes a comprehensive guide on new futures products, such as platinum and palladium, detailing their market strategies and historical context [7][9] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the cost curves of various commodity sectors, including energy and agricultural products [5] - The article serves as a resource for investors preparing for new market entries and strategies in futures trading [9]