新春特辑：开年问大势（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2026 will be a pivotal year for China's economic reform and development, with a focus on domestic demand and a shift towards a "non-typical" recovery process [3][4]. Domestic Macro Situation and Policy Mainline - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to mark a year of comprehensive reform and development, with domestic demand changes anticipated to be more significant than external demand [3]. - Key highlights of the domestic economy include: 1. "Anti-involution" leading to a reduction in price indices and recovery in corporate profits 2. Service sector opening up, contributing to a rebound in consumption 3. Government-led initiatives in "new" infrastructure and increased private investment in consumption-related infrastructure [4]. Policy Perspective - The main line of the "15th Five-Year Plan" reflects a reconstruction of economic growth logic, with a shift in industrial policy towards "extraordinary" technological breakthroughs and a focus on quality [6]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand through service consumption and enhancing vitality through service sector openness is highlighted [6]. Overseas Economic and Policy Trends - Traditional "cyclical" sectors like manufacturing continue to recover, while AI capital expenditure remains a new growth point. Overall, the economies of the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to perform better in 2026 compared to 2025, with resilient external demand [9]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, and the dollar is still in the first half of a long-term depreciation cycle [10]. Major Asset Allocation - With the recovery of nominal GDP, the process of "funds rebalancing" is expected to continue. The demand for market entry from Chinese residents moving their deposits may be underestimated, and international funds rebalancing could strengthen the renminbi [12]. - The recognition of the renminbi's appreciation trend is likely to gradually form a consensus, potentially driving the revaluation of Chinese assets and catalyzing structural trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [13]. Observations from Local "Two Sessions" - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand has significantly increased in local government meetings, with accelerated transitions towards digitalization and green transformation in industries [7].