申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟：2026年，聚焦“顺周期”新叙事与资金“再平衡”

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and is a critical juncture for economic transformation and institutional reform, with a non-typical "recovery" state expected, leading to improved corporate profitability and significant structural differentiation across industries and companies [3] Group 1: Economic Recovery and Policy Measures - The policy focus on "anti-involution" aims to curb low-price competition, restore damaged profit margins, and promote a positive Producer Price Index (PPI) and profit recovery [3] - The emphasis on "investing in people" through social security reforms and service industry openness is expected to continuously unlock growth in service consumption [3] - Fiscal policies will play a crucial role in enhancing domestic demand, with increased debt relief efforts to mitigate the "crowding out effect" on investment funds, ensuring steady recovery in fixed asset investments, particularly in equipment upgrades, digital infrastructure, and energy transition [3] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - In the short term, the A-share market is expected to experience a continuation of capital "rebalancing" under a "pro-cyclical" narrative, with funds likely flowing from low-yield, high-volatility bond markets to equity markets, driving asset price revaluation [4] - Despite uncertainties in external trade, the domestic policy toolbox remains robust, and the continuous optimization of export structures indicates resilience in economic development [4] - The capital market is anticipated to reflect not only quantitative economic growth but also qualitative improvements in pricing and profitability, with A-shares expected to gradually elevate their central tendency amidst volatility [4] Group 3: Long-term Structural Changes - Over the long term, the "transformation" of industries and the "dividends" from reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will be central to high-quality development [4] - Key areas of focus include the construction of a unified national market, financial and tax system reforms, and breaking down institutional barriers to stimulate the vitality of business entities [4] - The cultivation of "new productive forces" alongside deep reforms will provide a solid rationale for the long-term revaluation of Chinese assets [4] Group 4: Key Areas of Attention for 2026 - The construction of a unified market will encompass foundational market systems, infrastructure, resource markets, government behavior standards, and market regulation enforcement, with an acceleration of institutional openness expected [5] - The green transition will be a significant policy focus, emphasizing energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in traditional high-energy-consuming industries through technological innovation and capacity replacement [5] - The combination of green transformation and industrial upgrading aims to enhance the core competitiveness of traditional industries, achieving a dual win of "carbon reduction" and "quality improvement" [5]