深度专题 | 地产“落”，消费“升”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that contrary to common belief, consumer spending in China may not continue to suffer due to the downturn in the real estate market. Instead, international experience suggests that consumer sentiment tends to improve during the latter stages of real estate adjustments, indicating that China may be at a turning point for consumer spending [1][9]. Group 1: International Experience and Economic Effects - International experience shows that consumer sentiment typically exhibits a "U-shaped" pattern around real estate turning points, with consumer spending improving before income does [2][10]. - The impact of real estate market changes on the economy can be categorized into three effects: "income effect," "wealth effect," and "crowding-out effect." The "income effect" influences total demand and employment, affecting consumer income and spending [2][11]. - In the first five years of the "post-real estate era," the "income effect" dominates, leading to a decline in consumer spending. After the peak of the real estate cycle, disposable income growth tends to decline for about ten years, with average growth rates dropping from 8%-10% to 3%-4% [2][11][16]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment Improvement - In the 5-10 years following the peak of the real estate market, the "crowding-out effect" weakens, allowing consumer sentiment to improve before income does. This shift is particularly evident among potential homebuyers aged 25-40, who are key drivers of social consumption [3][16]. - Evidence suggests that China may currently be at the starting point of a "U-shaped" reversal in consumer sentiment, with significant changes in the impact of real estate on the economy since 2021 [4][40]. - The year 2015 marked a critical turning point for the impact of real estate on the economy, with the "income effect" and "wealth effect" dominating until then, leading to sustained high growth in disposable income and consumer sentiment [4][41]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Policy Support - By around 2026, as the "crowding-out effect" significantly weakens, a new cycle of improved consumer sentiment may begin. Indicators such as the housing price-to-income ratio have returned to levels seen before 2015, suggesting a new balance in the three economic effects [5][83]. - The shift in population and industry towards non-first-tier cities is also reducing the pressure of high housing prices on young people's consumption willingness, further alleviating the "crowding-out effect" [94]. - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are being implemented, with a focus on optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and enhancing support for service consumption [156][157].