光伏周价格 | 光伏产业链四大环节价格短期弱稳，静待市场破局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the pressures of high inventory levels across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, leading to weak pricing trends and subdued demand [5][8][11][15]. Group 1: Polysilicon - Supply side: The polysilicon industry is facing significant high inventory pressure, with total inventory remaining above 51,000 tons and showing a continued slight accumulation trend, indicating a loose supply overall [5]. - Demand side: Downstream purchasing willingness is low, resulting in extremely light market transactions. The polysilicon trading is essentially in a "price without market" deadlock, with actual transactions completely stagnant [6]. - Price trend: In the context of supply-demand imbalance, polysilicon prices are struggling to maintain levels, with reports of leading companies lowering quotes, and the lowest reported price dropping to 46 RMB/Kg. Overall, polysilicon prices are expected to remain "weakly stable" in the near term [7]. Group 2: Wafers - Supply side: Current wafer inventory remains high, exceeding 25 GW, with further accumulation expected due to production and logistics factors related to the Spring Festival, indicating a surplus supply situation [8]. - Demand side: Despite wafer companies generally adopting price reduction strategies to stimulate purchases, the recovery pace of downstream cell production remains slow, leading to weak overall purchasing power and insufficient demand to digest the accumulated inventory [9]. - Price trend: The market price differentiation continues, with second and third-tier companies showing a clear downward pricing trend. Given the pressure to reduce inventory and expectations of "weak stability" in upstream polysilicon prices, wafer prices are expected to remain weakly stable in the short term [10]. Group 3: Cells - Supply side: Current cell inventory is around 9 days, with a slight increase due to reduced production during the Spring Festival and light market transactions [11]. - Demand side: During the Spring Festival, the downstream purchasing side maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude, with significantly insufficient willingness to stock up, resulting in very few actual transactions and weak overall demand [12]. - Price trend: Despite a drop from high silver prices, tight silver supply and bullish expectations keep cell production costs high (over 20,000 RMB per kilogram). High costs and production cuts support current prices at elevated levels, with short-term expectations for cell prices to remain weakly stable [13]. Group 4: Modules - Supply side: Current module manufacturers are primarily executing previous stock orders, lacking substantial new orders to support large-scale new delivery arrangements, leading to a conservative supply rhythm [15]. - Demand side: The terminal market shows a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with significantly low downstream purchasing willingness. Apart from a few urgent overseas orders, the number of substantial new orders is very limited, indicating a severe lack of incremental domestic market demand [16]. - Price trend: Current spot transaction prices for modules are concentrated in the range of 0.75 - 0.82 RMB/W. With the upcoming adjustment of export tax rebate policies, if new domestic orders do not follow up in time, overall module prices may face significant downward risks [17].