热点思考 | IEEPA关税被判违法，后续如何演绎？——“关税压力测试”系列之十三（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the IEEPA are illegal, including the equal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs, leading to potential changes in the tariff landscape [1][7][47]. Group 1: Supreme Court Tariff Ruling - The Supreme Court's ruling deemed IEEPA tariffs illegal due to violations of the principles of clear authorization and significant issues, affecting fentanyl tariffs (20% for China, 25% for Canada and Mexico) and global equal tariffs (10% base tariff) [1][7][47]. - The actual execution of the ruling may be delayed until late March to early April, with the ruling's effective date being February 20, 2026 [1][7][47]. - The probability of full refunds for IEEPA tariffs is low, but partial refunds are more likely, depending on how lower courts handle the relief scope [1][9][48]. Group 2: Trump's Response Strategy - Trump may seek to maintain the current tariff framework to avoid losing tariff gains, but significant upgrades may not occur due to electoral pressures [3][10][49]. - Following the ruling, Trump announced a global tariff increase from 10% to 15%, exempting key products, which may serve as a transitional measure for future tariffs [3][10][14][49]. - A potential gap in tariffs may arise in July, with the expiration of the 122 tariffs, leading to possible adjustments in existing 301 tariffs [3][10][15][49]. Group 3: Future Tariff Landscape - The invalidation of IEEPA tariffs could increase the federal deficit rate by 0.5-0.6 percentage points, with IEEPA tariffs accounting for 47.8% of U.S. tariff revenue in FY2025 [4][17][50]. - Without alternative measures, the effective U.S. tariff rate could decrease by approximately 7 percentage points, with the rate for China dropping from 31% to 15.4% [4][29][50]. - The tariff landscape may evolve into a new phase characterized by increased uncertainty, a gradual exit from universal tariffs, and a shift towards more targeted measures [6][42][51].