霍华德·马克斯表示：不要让情绪影响对战争的判断

Core Viewpoint - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, warns investors to remain calm and avoid emotional decision-making in light of the ongoing Middle East conflict, emphasizing the unpredictability of its duration, scale, and outcome [1][2]. Group 1: Emotional Decision-Making - Marks highlights the dangers of emotional decision-making, stating that it is easy for emotions to influence judgment, but this may not be helpful [3]. - He advises investors to exercise restraint in the face of high uncertainty, suggesting that there may be no smart actions to take given the lack of clarity [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The recent escalation in the Middle East, including the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, has led to significant shocks in the energy market, with Iran responding by launching missiles in the region [4]. Group 3: Private Credit Market Concerns - Marks expresses concerns about the private credit market, noting that its specialization has significantly decreased due to massive expansion over the past decade [6]. - He observes cracks emerging in certain corners of the market, which may be underestimated by some investors, citing bankruptcy cases of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group as examples [6]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Marks points out that people and markets often resist new information for a period before suddenly yielding, indicating a tendency for cognitive dissonance [7][8].