美股研究社·2026-02-25 11:33Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings reports from NVIDIA and Salesforce represent a critical moment in the AI era, highlighting a clash between infrastructure (NVIDIA) and application (Salesforce) business models [1][3]. Group 1: NVIDIA Insights - NVIDIA is expected to report quarterly revenue approaching or challenging $65 billion, driven by its data center business and significant investments in computing power from cloud providers and sovereign funds [5]. - The growth of NVIDIA's revenue is heavily reliant on a few tech giants, and any signals of a slowdown in capital expenditure or order delivery could shift market sentiment from "supply shortage" to "peak cycle" concerns [5][6]. - The valuation of NVIDIA is based on two assumptions: sustained long-term growth in AI inference and training demand, and the ability to maintain high gross margins due to technological barriers [5]. Group 2: Salesforce Insights - Salesforce has faced significant declines this year, driven by investor fears that AI could replace traditional software functions, threatening the value of SaaS models [7]. - The emergence of AI as an "orchestration layer" suggests that rather than replacing SaaS, AI may force it to evolve, as existing systems' data and processes are essential for AI to generate accurate outputs [7][9]. - If Salesforce's earnings report shows stable orders and that AI products enhance average revenue per user (ARPU), it could alleviate fears of a "software apocalypse" and lead to a technical rebound in the sector [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market split reflects the varying stages of the AI industry chain, with the first phase focused on infrastructure and the second on application and business model validation [10]. - If NVIDIA continues to grow while SaaS shows a slowdown, it indicates that AI remains in the infrastructure expansion phase, potentially leading to concerns about a "hardware bubble" due to a lack of cash flow from applications [10][11]. - The performance of both companies will be crucial in determining the future direction of the market, with NVIDIA representing "the height of belief" and Salesforce embodying "the depth of reality" [14].