光大证券研究·2026-03-02 23:08Core Viewpoint - The article expresses optimism about the upward trend of copper prices by 2026, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which supports copper prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to the support of copper prices in the short term [4]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 50.4% compared to February 12, 2026, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.0% [5]. - As of February 27, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 611,000 tons, up 5.4% from February 13 [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory reached 1,247,000 tons, a 48.3% increase from February 13 [5]. Group 3: Production and Supply - Global copper concentrate production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.2% year-on-year [6]. - In December 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 137,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 2,689 yuan/ton as of February 27, 2026, down 410 yuan/ton from February 13 [6]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a week-on-week increase in operating rates by 11.5 percentage points [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 6.1%, but increase by 2.9% and 4.9% in March, April, and May respectively [8]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 50.9% in January, showing a decrease of 1.9 percentage points month-on-month but an increase of 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Group 5: Futures Market - As of February 27, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts increased by 46% compared to February 13, 2026 [9]. - The open interest stood at 204,000 lots, placing it in the 59th percentile since 1995 [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 58,000 lots, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week, and in the 84th percentile since 1990 [9].