【公用事业】25年发电量同比+4.8%，Token出海迎来板块性机会——公用事业行业周报（20260301）（殷中枢/宋黎超）

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 1.89%, ranking 6th among 31 SW primary sectors; the CSI 300 rose by 1.08%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.8%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.05% [4] - Sub-sectors such as thermal power, hydropower, photovoltaic power, wind power, comprehensive energy services, and gas saw significant increases, with thermal power up by 8.93% and comprehensive energy services up by 12.37% [4] Price Updates - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices rebounded strongly, with domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal increasing by 24 CNY/ton week-on-week; imported thermal coal from Fangchenggang and Guangzhou ports rose by 20 CNY/ton and 30 CNY/ton respectively [5] - The average clearing price for spot electricity in Shanxi and Guangdong increased compared to last week, while the national average electricity price for agency purchases decreased significantly due to a drop in long-term thermal power contract prices and the entry of renewable energy [5] Key Events - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that by the end of 2025, the national installed power generation capacity reached 389,134 MW, a 16.1% increase year-on-year; wind power capacity grew by 22.9% and solar power capacity by 35.4% [6] - The total power generation in 2025 is projected to be 10,575.25 billion kWh, with various sources showing different growth rates, including a 39.8% increase in photovoltaic generation [6] - Chinese open-source AI models have topped the global Token usage rankings, indicating a significant advancement in the sector [6] Investment Insights - The essence of overseas Token investment lies in the sector being at a phase of valuation bottom and the demand for electricity catalyzed by domestic price advantages, presenting an opportunity for sectoral valuation recovery [7] - Stock selection strategy focuses on "computing electricity" businesses and power operators with favorable valuation configurations [7]