光大证券研究·2026-02-25 23:07Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, highlighting price changes, production rates, and economic indicators that may impact investment opportunities and risks in these areas [4][5][6][7][11][12]. Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings saw a slight increase during the Spring Festival period [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for February 2026 is at 48.66, a month-on-month decrease of 3.20% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.1 percentage points in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $5042 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in January-February is expected to be at the highest level for the same period in five years [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -0.73%, rubber at +3.14%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -0.43%, and iron ore at -1.04% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates saw month-on-month changes of -0.16 percentage points, +0.00 percentage points, and -1.3 percentage points, respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide prices unchanged and glass prices up by 1.14% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1880 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is at 73.89% [6] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for January is at 49.20% [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.26%, copper at +0.34%, and aluminum at -0.04%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +23.95%, -9.93%, and -0.15% [7] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 59.44%, a month-on-month decrease of 13.32 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached the lowest level since 2018 [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1946.84 yuan per ton, up by 0.14% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23100 yuan per ton, down by 0.04%, with a calculated profit of 6063 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down by 0.15% [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is 100440 yuan per ton, up by 0.34% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 697500 yuan per ton, up by 1.90% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of hot-rolled to rebar is at the lowest level for the same period in five years [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.10 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 300 yuan per ton, down by 70 yuan per ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.09 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 180 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 30 yuan per ton [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in January is at 47.80%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is at 1088.14 points, down by 3.03% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is at 77.80%, up by 0.70 percentage points [11] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the implementation of export licensing management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.36%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at +3.59% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 57.60% and 82.79%, respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [12]