【电新】碳排放双控转型推动碳成本重估，看好绿电的非电应用——碳中和深度报告（十四）（殷中枢/陈无忌/郝骞）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition from traditional energy sources to green energy applications, particularly focusing on the role of green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohol in decarbonizing industries such as steel, chemicals, and shipping [4][5]. Group 1: Energy Transition and Market Opportunities - The next decade will focus on the "non-electrification applications" of green energy, converting unstable renewable energy into stable industrial raw materials and thermal energy [4]. - The shift from "energy consumption dual control" to "carbon emission dual control" in China will create a significant market for green energy conversion, especially as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) takes effect [5]. - The period from 2026 to 2030 is identified as a critical window for the commercialization of green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohol [5]. Group 2: Carbon Cost and Asset Valuation - Environmental costs will become explicit as carbon costs embedded in industrial pricing, leading to a green premium for low-carbon assets and profit erosion for high-carbon assets [6]. - Assets with "negative carbon" or "low carbon" attributes, such as green aluminum and zero-carbon parks, will benefit from this shift [6]. Group 3: Green Hydrogen Applications - Green hydrogen is positioned as a core non-electric application of green energy, benefiting from carbon dual control policies, and can replace coal or natural gas in industries like steel and chemicals [7]. - Green hydrogen serves as a storage method for renewable energy, enabling long-term storage and cross-regional transport [7]. Group 4: Economic Viability and Market Demand - The shipping fuel green alcohol, solid carbon storage green ammonia, and hydrogen metallurgy are expected to benefit from economic factors and downstream payment capabilities [8]. - Green hydrogen is becoming cost-competitive with gray hydrogen, which will drive down costs for green alcohol and ammonia applications [8][9]. - Major global shipping companies and high-end chemical giants are showing strong demand for green methanol due to tightening EU ETS policies and their own carbon neutrality commitments [9].