有色行情涨到你心慌？要不要下车？来听万家基金叶勇怎么说

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing bullish cycle in the commodity market, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple factors including inflation expectations and advancements in artificial intelligence, which are creating new demand dynamics for metals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Non-ferrous metals experienced a significant increase of 153.9% in 2025, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries, with an additional rise of 17.2% at the beginning of 2026 [3]. - The current commodity super cycle is believed to be in an upward trend, with the upturn expected to last until around 2030, currently in its second major wave [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that commodity cycles typically consist of 8-10 years of upward movement followed by 15-20 years of decline [4]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The article highlights the importance of reaching a sufficiently high price level before a potential pullback occurs, which would stimulate significant capital expenditure in upstream resource sectors [5]. - Key commodities identified for investment include gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, with agricultural products lagging behind [7]. - The investment strategy proposed by Ye Yong focuses on a contrarian and value-based approach, suggesting that certain sectors like real estate may not be favorable despite low valuations [9]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Holdings - Ye Yong manages several funds with a notable annualized return of 17.5% since his tenure began, with the flagship fund, Wan Jia Double Engine Flexible Allocation Mixed A, achieving a return of 243.5% [10][12]. - The fund's focus has shifted significantly towards non-ferrous metals, increasing from 4.63% in mid-2022 to around 65% by mid-2024 [13]. - The fund maintains a high stock allocation of 93.1%, with a focus on industrial metals, precious metals, and energy sectors [19]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The potential end of deflation in 2026 is expected to significantly influence market styles, with a recovery in cyclical sectors anticipated if PPI rises [20]. - Three investment strategies are proposed: focusing on industrial non-ferrous and small metals, traditional cyclical industries, and sectors that may benefit from a broader cyclical recovery [21][22]. - Non-ferrous metals are positioned as a leading sector that could benefit from valuation premiums if cyclical styles return [23].