特朗普关税，中国要得回来吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling declared that the global tariffs imposed by Trump under "emergency powers" were illegal, raising significant questions for governments and companies regarding the validity of previously negotiated tariff agreements and the possibility of reclaiming paid tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Legal and Financial Implications - Over 900 U.S. companies have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for tariffs paid, with expected total claims exceeding $130 billion [3]. - The U.S. government collected approximately $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs over the past year, which constituted about half of its total tariff revenue during that period [4]. - The likelihood of the government returning the full amount of collected tariffs is considered low due to the substantial financial burden it would impose [4]. Group 2: Chinese Companies' Involvement - Chinese companies can potentially join the refund claims through various avenues, with 20% of U.S. imports from China being registered as eligible for refunds [3][6]. - There are three scenarios where Chinese exporters could claim refunds: sharing refunds with U.S. importers, using DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) shipping terms, or having U.S. branches that can apply for refunds [6][8]. - The trend of Chinese companies registering as U.S. importers has increased significantly, from 9% to 20% of trade volume by the end of the year [8]. Group 3: Impact on U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Supreme Court ruling has enhanced China's negotiating position in trade discussions with the U.S., especially with Trump's upcoming visit to China [10]. - The ruling resulted in a 7.1% decrease in the trade-weighted average tariff on China, while some countries with prior agreements may face increased tariffs [11]. - Despite the short-term reduction in tariffs, long-term uncertainties remain as Trump indicated intentions to continue imposing tariffs through other legal frameworks [11][12]. Group 4: Future Tariff Strategies - Trump may utilize Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, which do not require congressional approval, to impose new tariffs on various sectors, including electric batteries and telecommunications [12][13]. - The White House has indicated plans to investigate and potentially impose new tariffs on industries related to intellectual property theft and market distortions [14]. - The Supreme Court ruling has created structural constraints that may hinder the rapid imposition of new tariffs, suggesting a temporary period of stability for Chinese exporters [14].