【招银研究】海外地缘冲突升级，中国市场聚焦两会——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2026.03.02-03.06）

Group 1: Overseas Macro Strategy - The joint military action by the US and Israel against Iran in late February 2026 is a core disturbance factor in the overseas macro market [2] - The situation in Iran may exhibit characteristics of "low-intensity long-termization," with high shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global markets primarily through heightened risk aversion and increased energy prices and inflation expectations [2] - Short-term effects include rising risk aversion supporting the performance of safe-haven assets like the US dollar, precious metals, and US Treasuries, while global stock markets face pressure, with significant divergence among sectors [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Gold continues to show strength due to its dual role as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, while silver benefits from increased risk aversion and capital flow within the precious metals sector [2] - Concerns over shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drive significant upward movement in oil prices, while copper prices receive short-term support due to limited Iranian export supplies [2] Group 3: Chinese Macro Strategy - The upcoming government work report post-two sessions will focus on whether economic growth targets will be adjusted, with local GDP growth targets down by 0.22 percentage points to 5.06% [4] - The report may introduce more quantitative indicators related to resident consumption to enhance strategic guidance for the year [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain moderately expansive, with key data on deficit rates and special bond issuance to be clarified [4] Group 4: A-share and Hong Kong Market Analysis - Rising oil prices may increase upstream costs, squeezing midstream and downstream profits, and weakening interest rate cut expectations, though limited impact is expected if oil price increases are less than those during the 2025 conflict [5] - Investment strategies should focus on cyclical sectors with anti-inflation and safe-haven attributes, particularly in strategic resources like oil, natural gas, precious metals, and military technology [5] - The Hong Kong market faces greater impact than the A-share market due to its higher sensitivity to interest rate cut expectations and cost pressures on technology and consumer sectors [5]