【招银研究|House View】国内通胀预期抬升，周期板块继续受益——招商银行研究院House View（2026年3月）

Economic Overview - The global economy is transitioning to an AI-driven phase, with the U.S. economy currently exhibiting a "Goldilocks" scenario, but risks of overheating and "re-inflation" are emerging, necessitating caution regarding interest rate cuts not meeting expectations [15][30] - The U.S. economy has shown unexpected contraction due to government shutdown impacts, with Q4 2025 GDP growth rate falling to 1.4%, driven by a 5.1% decline in government purchases and a 1.1% drop in consumer spending [16][30] - Despite the contraction, corporate profits remain robust, with S&P 500 EPS growth at 12%, and significant capital expenditure increases expected from major tech firms [16][20] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 52.6 in January 2026, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [17] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in January 2026, suggesting a stabilization in the labor market, although job growth remains concentrated in specific sectors [20][22] - Core PCE inflation is rising, with January 2026 figures at 3.0%, indicating potential inflationary pressures ahead [28][30] Non-U.S. Economic Trends - The global economic recovery is being driven by AI-related capital expenditures, particularly in South Korea, where exports surged by 39.2% in January 2026 [31] - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q4 2025 was 0.3%, with inflation returning to target levels, but the sustainability of this recovery is in question due to ongoing trade impacts [40][43] - Japan's economy is showing signs of weakness, with Q4 2025 GDP growth at only 0.2%, influenced by external trade tensions [40][41] Investment Strategies - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a phase of valuation pressure, with a shift in market preference from tech giants to non-tech sectors as manufacturing recovers [45][48] - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields is mixed, with short-term rates expected to fluctuate while the long-term yield target is adjusted to 4.2% due to inflation risks [53][54] - Gold remains a favorable investment amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, with recommendations to maintain exposure despite potential pressures from U.S. monetary policy shifts [66][67] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a long-term outlook of recovery as inflation risks materialize [59][60] - The euro lacks independent momentum and is expected to mirror the dollar's movements, while the Japanese yen faces dual pressures from interest rate differentials and intervention risks [64][65] - Oil prices are anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical tensions, but fundamental supply-demand dynamics may limit long-term price increases [71][72]