大摩交易员：“AI恐惧”可能已到达顶峰，如果没有，那么买HALO吧

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's trading division believes that the market's fear of AI disrupting traditional industries has peaked, and investors concerned about AI's impact should consider "HALO" trades, which involve investing in high-barrier, low-obsolescence physical assets as a hedge against uncertainty brought by AI [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Recent market sentiment was catalyzed by a briefing from AI company Anthropic, which indicated a preference for "cooperation" rather than "replacement" between AI and existing software vendors, leading to a rebound in previously shorted software stocks [1]. - Despite the S&P 500 index remaining stable since late October last year, there has been unprecedented internal market differentiation, with significant capital inflows into AI beneficiary stocks and semiconductors, while software assets were indiscriminately sold off [1][5]. - The divergence in stock performance is highlighted by a 24% pullback in the growth vs. value stock return spread and an 11% decline in the S&P 500 information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, driven by increasing "AI disruption fears" [5][10]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Positioning - Hedge fund flows have exacerbated extreme positioning in the market, with significant net buying in semiconductor and AI beneficiary stocks, pushing exposure to the highest level since 2020, while infrastructure software has seen the most selling [10]. - Following Anthropic's briefing, there was a reassessment of extreme positions, with a notable rebound of about 5% in software stocks previously labeled as facing AI risks, as the market began to view AI developments as complementary to existing software systems [10]. Group 3: HALO Strategy and Investment Recommendations - For investors who believe that "AI fears" have not yet peaked, Morgan Stanley recommends buying into the HALO theme, which stands for "Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence," focusing on tangible, high-barrier assets that are less likely to be replaced by technology [11][12]. - The HALO basket, which includes sectors like utilities, railroads, and defense, has shown significant performance, rising 28% over the past year, while stocks perceived to be at risk from AI have dropped 43% [14]. - The current positioning in the HALO sector is not crowded, with net exposure at the 53rd percentile since 2020, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14][15].